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Top 2010 Fantasy Football Overvalued Players
One of the keys to winning a fantasy football league is the ability to recognize overrated players and ignore them. “Slumpers” are NFL players who tend to be top 3 draft picks at their position and produce similar players drafted in double digit rounds. These players are also known as “Draft Killers”, especially if they are first or second round players. The key to winning your fantasy football league is to find players that produce consistently. You may be able to offset a slumper with a sleeper, but deadlifting is best avoided if you can see any signs of a possible fall. However, there are times when the signals are not present. A perfect example of this from 2009 was Matt Forte. No one expected a drop of 300 yards and 8 total TDs from his 2008 rookie season. Michael Turner’s drop in 2009 came as no surprise as he recorded 376 carries in 2008. Below are the top overrated fantasy football players by position.
2010 fantasy football pajamas
Quarterback: Matt Schaub (Houston) – As tempting as it is to put Brett Favre in this position, he hasn’t signed with the Vikings for 2010, even though that’s as inevitable as sunrise. Therefore, he must be omitted. Our pick for QB is Matt Schaub. He has gone as high as the third round in many of our drafts. There are too many quality RBs and WRs available at this point in the draft. Schaub is too frail to spend a pick on him here. Somehow, he lasted the entire season in 2009, but it’s crazy to expect it to happen again in 2010. Plus, his success is largely tied to WR Andre Johnson. Johnson enters the 2010 season a little upset that the Texans didn’t break his current contract and rewarded him with a big bonus and top WR cash. This situation tends to distract a player, so Schaub will suffer if Johnson’s head is fully in the game.
RB: Steven Jackson (St. Louis) – There is no player in the NFL I admire more than SJax. He’s on the worst team in the league and he’s the only player who makes the Rams come close to resembling a professional football team. However, he doesn’t complain about his contract or the lack of talent around him. He just takes the ball and punishes the defenders. However, continually encountering 8-man fronts takes its toll. That will continue to be the case this year as the Rams add a rookie quarterback. While Jackson had more than 1,400 yards last year, he carried the ball 326 times and caught 51 passes. That’s a lot of action and he only found the end zone on 4 carries. The last time he got anywhere near that much activity was 2006. In 2007, his yards were down 33%, his touchdowns were down 62% and his receptions were down 42%. You could see the toll he took in 2009 when his last three games produced a total of 184 yards, 7 receptions and zero TDs. Jackson is still being drafted in the first round. He can’t risk his top pick running out of steam in his playoffs and him not being able to sniff out the end zone.
Screenplay: Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona) – Fitz may be the most talented wide receiver in the NFL. However, he’ll be catching passes from one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league; Matt Leinart. Leinart was a full-time starter in 2006 and it was the worst season of Fitzgerald’s career (69/946/6). Last year when Leinart started against Tennessee, Fitz was targeted 5 times and caught a measly 4 passes for 34 yards and no TDs. With the dual threat of Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, I expect numbers similar to 2006 for Fitzgerald, who is definitely not worthy of his first or second draft pick.
TH: Greg Olsen (Chicago) – Olsen enjoyed his best season as a pro last year; increasing his receptions, yards and TDs (jumping to 8). He has two issues working against him this year. First of all, the Bears signed Mike Martz. Martz has been known to forget that tight end is a real offensive position. Many of his plays require quick reads and pitches. While Olsen is one of the most athletic tight ends in the league, even he needs time to open up. The other problem is that Chicago found out that they actually have receivers on their roster. Devin Hester and Johnny Knox had remarkable numbers last year compared to their expectations and will thrive in Martz’s offense this year. Even better, just when the league thought the Bears’ passing scheme was well defended (watch Cutler’s interceptions), Devin Aromashodu arrived. In Aromashodu’s last 4 games (how fun is it to say “Aromashodu”?!), he’s Caught 22 passes for 282 yards and 4 TDs. These three receivers remind Martz of the trio he had in St. Louis. Can anyone name a Rams tight end in the early 2000s?
D: Pittsburgh Steelers – The Iron Curtain was somewhat tarnished in 2009. They gave up 306 points and generated just 22 turnovers. It could be argued that much of that was attributed to Troy Polamalu’s lack of defense. But, the fact is that they are getting old and even a little moody. LB LaMarr Woodley has repeatedly expressed his dissatisfaction with his contract. During the 2009 season, they lacked their normal killer instinct; losing games late to Chicago, Cincinnati, Kansas City and Oakland that they normally wouldn’t have had in the past. Super Bowl hangover? Possibly, but I no longer see this defense as a top-5 defense.
k: choose one (All) – Any kicker drafted before the last 2 rounds. Actually, the best way to evaluate a kicker is by his bye week. Take a kicker and a kicker only and then pick one that’s available with the last week off so he can forget about that position for as long as possible.
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