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Fantasy Baseball 2011 Player Analyzer: Ricky Nolasco SP Florida Marlins
I’m starting a new feature today as we start to move into fantasy baseball as fantasy football comes to a close. This post and others like it will be dedicated to profiling “My Guys” in fantasy baseball who I have a personal crush on from a ROTO perspective and what I can envision for them this season. Everyone who plays any fantasy game has those few players who own almost every season and they have guys they look to more than most other owners. That brings me to my first MY GUY this season and he just signed a three year contract extension with the Florida Marlins and that’s SP Ricky Nolasco.
Now let me tell you about my crush on Nolasco and where it started. It was the All-Star break during the 2008 fantasy baseball season and I was looking for help in the back of my pitching staff due to injuries. I perused the free agent wire and settled on the young Nolasco, who had a 3.70 ERA in the first half, but had an ERA over 4.50 his first two years. So despite decent-looking ERA, no one was willing to try a previously shaky Nolasco who hadn’t shown much of a punch punch yet. I took a shot, though, and what happened next launched me to a title in that particular league, as Nolasco ripped with a 3.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 98K on 95 IP. It was a revealing end to the season and it looked like Nolasco had emerged as a potential top-flight fantasy baseball starter.
The following season I tried to draft Nolasco in the middle of the 2009 draft, but someone else liked what they saw in late 2008 and beat me to it. Needless to say, that owner was disgusted by what he got over the first half of that season, as Nolasco posted a horrible 5.76 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and a deserved demotion to the minor leagues for a short stint to find his stuff. . That owner ended up cutting Nolasco in May and after the demotion, I once again did an All Star break pickup with a “you never know” shrug. After seeing two very good stars after the break, I once again rode Nolasco to the finish line and another fantasy baseball title with the help of a 4.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with an absurd 109 K in just 94 IP. Lightning strikes twice, it looks like once again Nolasco was amazing in the second half. The ERA was higher than the year before, but that was due to a 10 ER outing that was an anomaly. The WHIP and K’s were like a surefire ace. So once again I was in love with Nolasco and this time I made sure to select him for 2010.
Spring training 2010 brought more good news as Nolasco was nearly unbeatable in the entire Grapefruit League, but once again struggled the first half of the year with a 4.55 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with less K than IP. The gopher ball became a problem (as it has throughout his career) and so he set the stage for another run in the second half. This time Nolasco was good in the second half posting a 4.40 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and 53 K on 47 IP. Nolasco increased his K rate again in the second half and WHIP and ERA dropped, but it didn’t have the same kind of impact as the previous two post-All Star campaigns. The caveat there, though, was that Nolasco suffered an injury. in the meniscus during August and was bombed on two sorties after the problem arose. So there was a bit of throwing off the stats as a result of injury there. All things considered, it wasn’t the super breakout we were hoping for.
So here we are once again looking ahead to draft season and I am once again planning to draft Nolasco. In terms of his draft value this season, Nolasco will be a bargain compared to the previous two years, when many more owners were intrigued by his potential. With two straight seasons above 4.00-ERA, the flower is blooming for many when it comes to Nolasco, so he’s going to fall into drafts this time around. I’ll be holding off on attacking though, as I still love the ingredients that Nolasco offers. He has the power repertoire to threaten the 200-K mark and also doesn’t walk hitters, which he’ll keep under WHIP. The main problem … and it’s a big problem … is the home run bias he’s displayed throughout his career. The penchant for giving up home runs has inflated his ERA, and therefore he hasn’t shown how effective he is overall. If Nolasco can work to keep the ball in the park, we could easily look at the No. 2 starter as numbers. We’ve seen it in streaks and for long periods of time before, so the ability is there. Whether Nolasco can put together a full season is the only debate. I know that once again I will be there waiting for it to happen.
2010 Projection: 12-7 3.78 ERA 188 K 1.24 WHIP
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