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Simple NFL Systems #40 – Favorites Of At Least 14 Points Coming Off A Big Win ATS
For those of you who like to bet on perennial Super Bowl contenders: Here’s a pretty straightforward NFL betting system that involves favorites of at least 14 points that’s been 20-0 ATS in the past 14 seasons and 3-0 ATS just last year.
Differentials of at least 2 TDs aren’t really as common as you might think – since 1994 there have only been 93 games involving a 14+ point line and the favorites have produced a fairly mundane 46-47 ATS record during this time frame.
Thanks in part to New England’s early dominance last season, 2007 saw the most 2-touchdown differentials in the last 15 years: a total of 13 games with a line of at least 14 points. After burning out in the first half of the season, the linemakers caught up with the Patriots, and by season’s end, the heavy favorites were just 6-7 against the number.
Now, before we go any further, it’s important to mention that trends or systems that involve fewer games, like this, tend to be less reliable in predicting future results than a trend that involves, say, 100-200 games.
Additionally, systems that typically play only a fraction of the teams in the league (in this case, only 34.4% of teams have been involved at one point or another) are also more susceptible to a change in fortune.
Having said that, a small system like this that involves a limited number of related conditions can be a useful tool in handicapping a game where more substantial trends or other meaningful betting information is lacking. In other words: I do not recommend making a selection based on onlyin a trend of this nature, but if you need to make a selection for whatever reason (ie office group), a 54-56% chance of success (as this angle essentially provides) is better than nothing.
Now that I’ve raised the flag of caution about using systems in this category, let’s get back to exploring the logic behind this particular trend.
Betting on big favorites is a habit normally associated with the large number of “squares” placing bets each week, and as his 46-47 ATS record reveals, it’s also a surefire way to lose money in the long run.
When we look at the big favorites that are arrival of an important ATS victory; however, suddenly we have a very profitable situation on our hands.
Since 1994, favorites of at least 14 points coming from a ATS victory of 14 points or more they are a solid 21-7 ATS (75.0%) netted $1,330.00 by betting $110.00 to win back $100.00 on each event.
On the other hand, the great favorites that could not cover the spread in their last game or covered by less than a field goal, turns out to be a sad 16-28 ATS in his next game, with a 2-5 ATS record last season.
The lesson here is pretty clear: play the big favorites only as long as they far exceed the expectations of the betting public. As soon as they can’t cover the spread authoritatively, download them and move on to other opportunities. This pattern certainly applied to the Pats’ final season as it has to many other dominant teams over the past decade and a half.
there is actually an end secondary condition that I like to add to this system and that is to remove games where our heavy favorite’s opponent has a better record outside of his division than inside. Considering that games with a 2-touchdown spread are more likely to be a non-divisional matchup than a divisional one, an opponent who has a superior record in this situation can pose problems for the favored team.
NFL rankings that appear in the newspaper or on the Internet will not typically specify a team’s ‘non-division’ record, so the easiest way to determine if the latter condition applies is to compare general winning percentage with divisional winning percentage. A higher overall winning percentage obviously indicates that this team plays its best football against non-division opponents.
Once this last condition is added, the registry of this system improves to 20-0 ATS since 1994. Here are all the details, including the top 4 teams that have found themselves in this situation in the last 14 years.
(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Margin Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the negative line, which is weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. % in weigh is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread of the teams in this situation. For more details, see page 13 of my 2007 NFL Play Sheets Guide.)
System Overview #40
Primary conditions (building blocks)
1) Favorite of >= 14 points.
2) ATS margin >= 14 in the last game.
Secondary conditions (tensors)
1) Exclude the opponent with an overall WP >= divisional WP (DWP).
% housing: 80.0
% by weight: 95.0
Best Teams: SF(4); NE(3); STL(3); BALANCE(2)
Overall (since ’94): 20-0 ATS
2007 season: 3-0 ATS
2006 season: 0-0 ATS
2005 season: 2-0 ATS
2004 season: 0-0 ATS
Last 3 results. select between parentheses
2007 WK7–NE 49 MIA 28 (NE-16) W
2007 WK5 — NE 34 CLE 17 (NE -16.5) W
2007 WK3–NE 38 BUF 7 (NE -16.5) O.
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