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March Madness Odds and Sports Betting Tips: How To Win in the Big Dance, NCAA Tournament
In many cases, for example, what made us money during the regular season will make money in March, but there are also many new angles to make money.
Face the selection committee against Roxy and company
Excluding the ninth-seed through eighth-seed placement points, we still love to go with the favorites from the lower seeds to the higher seeded teams. That being said, with the caveat to excluding the four games mentioned above where the seeds could have changed anyway, there have been tournaments where this does not apply.
But we will be more than happily betting our money on line builders who exploit false top seeds.
Short-term excitement, long-term talent
When betting halftime lines, we have a rare case of what seems too apparent to actually be true. But the public’s enthusiasm for big stakes has prevented this from being a source of income for the average Joe. Going with the No. 16 seed in the first half has definitely given me and my associates a nice spare change over the years.
Before I make a final decision, I watch the game at the plate, but too often I’ll bet on the top seed in the second half. For the most part, the lower seeds have guys playing in the biggest game of their lives without exception. The team’s veterans in many cases play their last game of organized ball at any level. Others have the ultimate showcase for foreign league scouts.
Finally, there isn’t a single player on the lower-seeded teams who hasn’t dreamed of starring in a college version of Lake Placid or becoming part of the biggest upset in Big Dance history.
All those intangibles for about 20 minutes usually go a long way toward making up the talent gap. But 40+ minutes with infinitely more talent and depth means, as Dick Vitale would say “Blowout City baby” in the second half.
Also, if the bottom seed makes the game look interesting for a while, it serves to wake up the top seed at halftime. The second half represents an epiphany for the team that spent the first 20 minutes most worried about playing two days later. Then the expected bursting of the bubble occurs.
Once the fastest, strongest and deepest top seed advances in that inevitable 10-0 burst, all delusions of grandeur come crashing down in Squid State. The emotional roller coaster makes its descent. We charged with the side sixteen in the first half and the huge chalk in the second.
Beware of the “Guards Rule” Trap
I hear all the time that “it’s a game dominated by the guard”. Then a conclusion to the effect of “Harm the guards first” usually follows. This conviction is not so much a myth as a matter of inductive rather than deductive reasoning.
The simple fact is that there are far more shooting guards than centers, so based on pure numbers alone, there will be more shooting guard-oriented teams moving forward. Of course, there will be more defense-oriented teams whose bubble will also burst when draft time comes around. In fact, look at the bottom of each conference and you’ll find plenty of guard-oriented teams.
Truth be told, the teams that have the big men are the teams that will have the biggest mismatches, literally and figuratively. Again, though, guard-oriented lovers aren’t completely falling into a classic trap of going against it. In fact, smart players hurt teams as a whole.
Sure, teams that have great 3-point shooters are the best “shot in the dark” teams on the money line, but conversely, if they get cold feet, they can also be good at meeting on “pleasers.” They are high-risk/high-return, but there are also high-return/low-risk options.
Don’t fall in love with older people
It’s a simple syllogism: teams with the best players win, the best players, with few exceptions, don’t stay until their senior year, therefore the best teams aren’t senior-laden.
This indisputable truth becomes more every year. I will take the talented team over the experienced team.
In fact, I’d be wary of veteran-laden favorites over a young team with a bigger lead and nothing to lose.
On the contrary, I by no means suggest always betting against the most experienced team. If you’re talking about a team that’s dealing with a ten-point dog (ie a team that isn’t completely outmatched but gets a decent amount of points), there’s reason enough to bet to cover, though not blindly.
The hypotheses of playing the last game in organized ball and showcasing for the
European scouts can inspire a competitive team to fight to the bitter end, but I’d rather invest in a team like Arizona, unfamiliar with the postseason but plenty of skill.
Fade the Chic Outfits
One of the first questions asked by the so-called “experts” after the announcement of the pairings is “Who will the dark horse teams be?” Very often, Billy Packer in a network,
Dick Vitale in another, USA Today on Monday and as many media hackers and talking heads pick the same team. One year everyone loves Eastern Michigan, the next Princeton.
Dark horse teams have the element of surprise and the “no respect” motivational factor. Once all the regurgitating paparazzi decide what the flavor of the month is for March, they’re not dark horses anymore, are they?
Not only is there no element of surprise, but also what better way to make sure your top-ranked team doesn’t overlook your opponent than to point out that your foe has been tagged by the media as one of the potential Cinderella teams?
In fact, unseen sight and opponent, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gonzaga, the three-time wearer of the glass slipper, now becomes an anticipated causality because for the first time they face the weight of great expectation.
Don’t get talked into betting on every game
I realize there are casual players who gamble what I like to call “lunch money” on games. As long as they risk mere entertainment money to make sure a game interests them, it’s harmless. And there is always a book ready to help.
However, when it comes to betting with your own funds, don’t feel like you have to bet on whatever game is being televised in your area. Get DirecTV or go to a sports bar to check out the good bucks. Don’t look at the morning sports page to see what’s on your local channel and convince yourself that it’s one of the strongest games on the board. Also, if you choose the sports bar option, you can get a Final Four caliber waitress. Just don’t let the wife know.
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